The delay in rainfall has affected agricultural activities, and farmers are closely watching the skies in the hope of an early revival of the monsoon. At the same time, water shortages in some regions are putting additional pressure on local administrations struggling to supply drinking water.
Recent satellite images released by international and Indian weather agencies have added to these concerns. According to data captured by Meteosat, NOAA and ISRO’s INSAT-3DS satellites, large parts of central and western India currently show very little cloud cover associated with the monsoon.
Just a few weeks ago, the monsoon appeared to be advancing faster than usual. However, the situation has changed dramatically since then.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), central India recorded a 65 percent rainfall deficit between June 4 and June 16. This makes it one of the worst-affected regions in the country during the period.
The first half of June is considered crucial for kharif crop sowing. However, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and several neighbouring states have not received satisfactory rainfall so far, increasing concerns among farmers.
The southwest monsoon officially entered Kerala on June 4 and initially advanced rapidly across southern India, parts of the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. By the second week of June, it had covered Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Goa, parts of Maharashtra, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal, Bihar and most northeastern states.
Despite this strong start, the monsoon’s progress has almost stopped during the last week. In Maharashtra, it has remained stalled around the Solapur region since June 8. Normally, the monsoon reaches Vidarbha by around June 15, but many parts of the region are still waiting for widespread rainfall.
Weather experts say the monsoon is currently active over southern and eastern India, but it is struggling to move further into central and northwestern parts of the country.
One of the main reasons behind the slowdown is the absence of strong low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal. These systems usually act as an engine that pulls moisture inland and helps the monsoon advance towards northern and western India.
Meteorologists also believe that western disturbances over northern India may be disrupting the natural movement of monsoon winds.
Another factor being closely watched is El Niño. The IMD has warned that moderate to strong El Niño conditions may develop during the June-to-September period. Historically, El Niño events have often been linked to weaker monsoon rainfall in India because they reduce the moisture flow needed for rain-bearing systems.
Many people may wonder why some places are still receiving rain despite the weak monsoon conditions. Experts explain that not all rainfall during June is directly linked to an active monsoon.
For example, parts of eastern India, northeastern states and some areas in central India have received scattered showers due to local weather systems. Recent rainfall in parts of Nagpur and Vidarbha is believed to have been caused by local atmospheric conditions rather than the advancing monsoon.
Weather experts say the next two weeks will be extremely important. Crops such as soybean, cotton and pulses depend heavily on rainfall during late June and early July.
If the monsoon regains strength after June 25, farmers may still be able to avoid major losses during the kharif season. However, if dry conditions continue into July, concerns over agriculture and water storage levels could increase significantly.
Experts stress that the monsoon has not disappeared. However, the combination of rainfall deficit, limited cloud cover and the possibility of El Niño has become a growing concern for both farmers and weather observers across the country.
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